Housing Market Update: Mortgage Applications Tick Up As Rates Drop From Peak, New Listings Rise

By Published On: November 20th, 20234.8 min read
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It’s a chicken-or-egg situation for homebuyers and sellers. Demand is rising partly due to an uptick in new listings, and listings are increasing partly because sellers are noticing more buyers enter the market.

Mortgage-purchase applications are on the rise. Mortgage-purchase applications rose 3% from a week earlier during the week ending November 10, bringing them to their highest level in five weeks. That marks the second straight week of increases. And while pending home sales were down 8% year over year during the four weeks ending November 12%, that’s one of the smallest declines since April 2022. House hunters are coming off the sidelines because mortgage rates are dropping from their peak: Average rates have declined from a two-decade high of 8% to the 7.4% range in the last month. 

Promising inflation report = good news for rates. Mortgage rates are declining partly because this week’s CPI report shows that inflation is easing. That means it’s almost certain the Fed won’t hike interest rates again this year–and they may start cutting rates earlier than expected. 

More sellers are jumping in, too. New listings of homes for sale are up 3% from a year earlier, the biggest increase in two years and just the second increase since July 2022 (the first was last week). The total number of homes for sale is near its highest level since the start of the year. There’s a variety of reasons why more homeowners are putting their homes on the market: Some are noticing the small uptick in homebuyer demand, some are worried home prices are going to decline if they wait any longer, and others are ready to give up their low mortgage rate after realizing rates are unlikely to drop back to pandemic-era levels anytime soon.

Leading indicators

Indicators of homebuying demand and activity
Value (if applicable) Recent change Year-over-year change Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate 7.45% (Nov. 15) Down slightly from 7.48% a week earlier, close to lowest level since mid-September Up from 6.65% Mortgage News Daily 
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate 7.5% (week ending Nov. 9) Down from two-decade high of 7.79% two weeks earlier Up from 7.08% Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted) Up 3% from a week earlier (as of week ending Nov. 10) Down 12% Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted) Essentially unchanged from a month earlier (as of the week ending Nov. 12)  Down 6% Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents
Google searches for “home for sale” Unchanged from a month earlier (as of Nov. 11) Down 10% Google Trends 
Touring activity Down 30% from the start of the year (as of Nov. 6) At this time last year, it was also down 30% from the start of 2022 ShowingTime, a home touring technology company

Key housing-market data

U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending November 12, 2023

Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision. 

Four weeks ending November 12, 2023 Year-over-year change Notes
Median sale price $367,998 4.2% Biggest increase in a year. Prices are up partly because elevated mortgage rates were hampering prices during this time last year
Median asking price $378,549 5.6% Biggest increase in over a year
Median monthly mortgage payment $2,670 at a 7.5% mortgage rate 13% Down $70 from the all-time high set 3 weeks earlier
Pending sales 66,773 -8%
New listings 75,912 3.3% Second year-over-year increase since July 2022. The increase is partly because new listings were falling at this time last  year. 
Active listings 864,976 -8.7% Smallest decline since July. Close to their highest level since the start of 2023.  
Months of supply  3.7 months +0.1 pt.  4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions. 
Share of homes off market in two weeks  35.8% Up from 32%
Median days on market 34 -2  days
Share of homes sold above list price 28.6% Up from 27%
Share of homes with a price drop 6.7% +0.2 pts. Record high (tied with previous week)
Average sale-to-list price ratio  99% +0.4 pts.  Lowest level since April

 

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending November 12, 2023

Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy. 

Metros with biggest year-over-year increases Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases Notes
Median sale price Anaheim, CA (12.9%)

Cincinnati, OH (12%)

San Diego, CA (11.9%)

Providence, RI (10.9%)

Newark, NJ (10.4%)

Austin, TX (-8.1%)

San Antonio, TX (-3.1%)

Detroit, MI (-1.2%)

Fort Worth, TX (-1%)

Tampa, FL (-0.5%)

Nashville, TN (-0.5%)

Declined in 6 metros 
Pending sales San Jose, CA (12%)

Las Vegas (0.9%)

Detroit (0.7%)

Anaheim, CA (unchanged)

San Francisco (unchanged)

Portland, OR (-22.6%)

Providence, RI (-17%)

Virginia Beach, VA (-16.8%)

New Brunswick, NJ (-16.2%)

New York (-15.7%)

Increased in 3 metros, stayed the same in 2, and declined in the others 
New listings San Jose, CA (24%)

West Palm Beach, FL (19.7%)

Phoenix (15.8%)

Tampa, FL (12.3%)

Montgomery County, PA (11.2%)

Atlanta (-17.8%)

Portland, OR (-15.9%)

Seattle (-9.7%)

Indianapolis, IN (-9.2%)

Newark, NJ (-9.1%)

Declined in roughly half the metros

Refer to our metrics definition page for explanations of all the metrics used in this report.

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